Up 50% for Year

My Portfolio has returned 50% for the year of 2011. I started in August and Traded through December!

I would have done much better but my fear and lack of trading really did not help! I can possibly do 100% next year. That is my goal!

10 Surprises for 2012

Marluv (Marluv@gmail.com): 10 Surprises for 2012

December 28^th, 2011

BROAD MARKET

Surprise No 1: The World stock market has 3 models that I believe will be the catalyst for higher prices in 2012.

The model is as such:

Model 1: The situation in Europe creates a massive panic and many countries are booted out. The Eurozone re-allocates itself to only the strong nations not before causing a massive crash in equities across the globe. The S&P will sell to 1000, Nasdaq 100 will sell below 2038 early next year and then a capitulated move will create a massive rally into the end of year. This situation can then transform into anyone of the next two models.

Model 2: The Job numbers stay in line with consensus and the market slowly grinds higher gaining a high of Nasdaq 100 – 2450 target. This will be the high for the year and we trade between that ranges during the course of the year.

Model 3: The Eurozone situation is contained and massive money printing creates another floor in equities and the market begins to rally due to inflation of the currency. The US economy begins to grow steadily and inflation stays low. The rally in equities move money out of bonds and the whole world goes into a massive rally. Emerging markets will be the biggest gainers. The target for this scenario is S&P 500 – 1520-1600 area.

TECHNOLOGY

Surprise No 2: Microsoft makes a bid for RIMM

Microsoft has experienced the lost decade just as the Japanese did because after Bill Gates left the company it was left with a poor creative leader Steve Ballmer. Bill Gates was the creative force behind Microsoft’s major leap in being a market pioneer in the technology sector. In the past 10 years apple came from way behind and took space from Microsoft by dominating the Mobile space. In early 2000 I remember Microsoft was the first in the Mobile space by unleashing Windows CE 1.0 and Pocket PC 1.0. For some odd reason the company did not put much quality in developing the new space properly and Apple came and gobbled it up like a turkey. Microsoft has had major problems transforming there business model to the CLOUD and is desperately trying to find new ways to innovate there business by launching Microsoft Synch, Bing and Windows Phone. The windows phone is way behind and needs population to grow. The only way to catch up with Android and IOS is by acquiring RIMM and there usage space.

Surprise No 3: AMAZON makes a bid for RIMM

Amazon has made an attempt to buy RIMM because they recently launched 3 versions of their E-book Reader. They need internet connectivity via 3G and 4G LTE and may look to acquire RIMM to help grow there space. RIMM made many mistakes and allow Apple and Android to eat up all there market space in the past decade. Amazon is trying to move into mobile information. The software business is a very turbulent business model.

Surprise No 4: AMAZON and online retailers must pay up in Taxes

Amazon continues to be the market leader for online shopping and is imposed with an online tax for out of state sales by many other states. The loop hole in online sales tax may begin to become a theme in congress to rebalance the economy local businesses by taxing online business with an internet federal flat tax. This is something online business dread but the internet is not some geek driven specialty product anymore. It is main stream and out of control. Many states will begin to impose taxes on internet commerce to help balance state wide budgets.

Surprise No 5: APPLE has a good year but this is the end

Apple continues its rise as people continue to support the product line but I seriously doubt apple will hit $1000 a share in the next 5 years. This is due to the fact that the technology world is a turbulent space and nothing is written in stone. Competition will ultimately curb apple’s product line and due to the fact that Steve Jobs has died the company will lose its way. The company will then slowly burn out and with no superstar CEO to capture people’s attention it becomes like another Microsoft. Big and bloated! The stock may slowly move and volatility dry up. Apple will not be able to keep up the pace of creativity in the years to come due to massive competition by Google, Microsoft, Samsung and everybody else. People tend to forget Steve Jobs was a gem!

Surprise No 6: Google Looses to Facebook

The Google+ product will ultimately fail as compared to Facebook. The world doesn’t need another social networking site. We already have another twenty that have died. The growth will eventually flat line and the product will just be another tool from Google. If Google cannot clearly make it stand out against Facebook with unique features it will die a slow death. Google is starting to worry that Facebook will take market share so is beginning to compete in order to preserve their position as the search leader. Google will ultimately win in the Mobile space because it’s clearly more abundant and device friendly. Google likes to share profits and Apple does not! The exclusivity of apple model is what will work against it in the long term. Google will have major problems with the multiple versions of the Android platform. This will create a problem for developers.

Surprise No 7: Twitter takes over

Twitter will continue to grow and will be an integral part of all types of message exchanging mechanisms for social media and reporting. The company will probably propose an IPO and will be a very successful IPO once launched. Twitter is a very valuable tool and will continue to dominate the internet space. It is allot more valuable than most people realize. The endless possibilities to its uniqueness will make it the next major IPO since GOOGLE. I prefer Twitter over Facebook.

Surprise No 8: Groupon, Linked IN, Zynga

All these babies will ultimately loose 30-50% of valuation. The business models for Groupon, Linked IN, and Zynga are terribly flawed. These companies hardly make a real profit and if I had to pick one out of these three to bet on I would possibly pick Zynga. The space for online gaming is young but I doubt Zynga will be the market leader of this space. The problem with groupon is it has major competition from Livingsocial.com and many others. Link-In is a great site for information about people but doesn’t really return any real cash.

Surprise No 9: Heavy 3D Gaming goes Mobile

I see major advances in hardware that online social gaming will become heavy in graphics and power. This may be the beginning of the Mobile 3D gaming world. Sony will possibly release a device for 4G LTE with heavy 3D capabilities as well as Microsoft and Nintendo. Apple and Android will also be the early leaders of this new space. N-Vidia will supply the technology for the graphics processors. The world will now transform from 3D heavy consoles to 3D heavy mobile devices.

AUTO MOBILES

Surprise No 10: Electric cars take charge

I see a major bull market setting up for the electric car space. There will be a huge opportunity in the electric car space because we have so many new products coming to the table. The vehicles will be so valuable that auto makers and dealers will do very well in the years to come. These cars will be gobbled up by people who live in the cities. The automakers will struggle to keep up with demand for the electric cars they produce. This will be one of the legs that will help revitalize America in the next 10 years. This space is a huge goldmine. The Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt and Toyota Prius will be the leaders. If USA allows BYG to import their vehicles here it will be a market leader as well. Finally Warren Buffett will make 800-1000% return on his BYG investment if that scenario occurs.

By: Marluv@gmail.com