Made 400% in 2015 trading Futures

Made 400% in 2015 trading Futures...

I turned 100K into almost 500K in just 3 months agressively trading S&P 500

Here is my actual statistics:

My 2016 Stock Market Projections

My 2016 Stock Market Projections

11 Surprises for 2016

11 Surprises for 2016

Surprise No 1: Low oil is here to stay

 We will now head down to the 20s as oil has a massive capitulation. We have many firms in the Junk bond market close to bankruptcy. Many of them are so in the red that I expect early next year you will hear them falling like dominoes. This may in fact push oil even lower as massive liquidation of ETF based funds like Third point capital, and fear grip the industry. After the meltdown oil should find a bottom and bounce for a while. The low on oil will be in the high teens. The Saudis are trying to bankrupt the US companies.

Surprise No 2: AMAZON business model take over the web

The low cost producer and low cost seller business model that COSTCO, Walmart and Target all use. Retail malls days are numbered. High quantity and lowest price will eventually take over the whole web. Competition is fierce online. This is good for consumers in the end. Brand name price competition is also going to be a big thing. High class brands will have a bidding war online for the lowest price point for that luxury brand. Amazon business model will translate into other parts of the economy where high margins are an endangered species. All products are a risk for Amazon's monopolistic behavior for world domination.
 

Surprise No 3: Retail Robotic Agents

All jobs are at risk for robotic integration over the next 10 years. Retail jobs are at highest risk because stores will try to find a cheap way to replace high labor costs. Supermarkets, Malls, Hotel bag handlers, or Cruise ships all will utilize these robots to help humans in there every day life. This is a MASSIVE game changer.  High unemployment will come from this disruptive market product. People will hate the machines. The machines will perform more efficient and cost cheaper than humans. Federal imposed minimum wage will force stores to find other ways of saving money.

Surprise No 4: Drones Take over

Drones will wage war against UPS, USPS and Fed-Ex. Delivery companies are a risk for this disruptive Force. Maybe all of these companies will have drone programs. Imagine in New York millions of packages flying through the sky on a sky lane. Just millions of dots in the air moving. All targeting a Phone's GPS of a person moving around the city. This is another massive game changer technology. Packages will be delivered very quickly and little hassle. Possibly even cheaper with amazon distribution centers on each part of the map.

Surprise No 5: China's Economic Change and  Recovery

I think china will recover as the economy will move to a consumer based economy from a commodity based economy. This will help revive the whole economy as billions of people will move to the middle class lifestyle. They will then begin to use allot of resources which in essence revive the commodity demand from china. US and brazil will benefit as well as all commodity producing nations. USA has been hit hard with coal and metals. This will give a boost to the strongest companies over the next 10 years to enter into a bull market. China is the new market that will drive the world for the next 100 years.  Disney's ceo said everything is fine in china from the consumer end. Their new theme park is about to open and they are very excited about the venture. Brazil recession may come to an end by end of 2016.

Surprise No 6: Autonomous car

The Autonomous car will be the next major shift for automobiles. Cars driving themselves all over the planet will be a massive change of how humans will transport. These cars uses lasers, sensors, GPS and cameras to guide its way through busy traffic. AI algorithms are now able to mimic the actual driver behavior and this will be the next generation for cars. The driver-less car will take you to work and then drive home by itself or go wait for you at a rest stop. It it will come back and pick you up and take you home. It may even wait for you in a queue in front of your building. I can visualize a Benz waiting for a CEO outside and he steps in and home he goes to the Hamptons. 

Surprise No 7: Insurance Auto Companies will die!

GEICO, Statefarm, Farmers, All State and Liberty insurance are all at risk of the driver-less car. The responsibility of insuring risk while driving will move to the manufacturer of the automobile. People don't need to be insured because the car has to take the blame if something happens with the AI. These premiums collected by insurance companies will dwindle and many big insurance companies will have to be re-valued. Blame will go back to TESLA, GM, FORD, Mercedes if anything bad happens while driving the car because the computer AI is the blame. Human's don't need to be insured unless they are manually driving the car. This may force people to stop driving and allow the Autonomous car to lead the way for the future.

Surprise No 8: Taxis/Uber become Autonomous

Social sharing and uber sharing will also be the big thing in transportation. The taxi system will be fully autonomous based on demand for a certain path. You could hop from car to car to get to a certain destination and pay a small fee by carpooling between multiple uber cars to get to your destination. It could integrate into Buses, Trains and all types of connections. This is good for the consumer because travel will be cheaper and way more efficient. This is a trillion dollar industry.

Surprise No 9: Short Central Banks 

The deficit of the world has expanded to levels beyond control. The minimum payment on the credit card is a huge percentage of our GDP. All central banks have been printing money like there is no tomorrow to try to stimulate the world economy for growth. This has lead the future to become a very unstable and uncertain place. Japan is on the brink of a currency collapse because they have lost control over central banking. If US, and Japan increase interest rates it will force higher payments on the interest and will force the economy to struggle to grow. The debt is just simply out of hand and all money needs to be re-valued. Central banks may have a huge melt down and Gold will be the safe haven. Europe and US leaders have made many mistakes on the future of monetary policy. It may be too late to save the system. Japan might be the first shoe to drop, which cascades (via carry trade) to other currencies. This may begin next year. Central banks have all declared war against paper currencies.

Surprise No 10 : Electric Airplanes

I see a future where electric based airplanes will be cheap and accessible to the average person. Air blimps will make a return for transportation of packages and other uses. This is a new change to the airline industry and will be a massive change of how people move around the world. Some people will shun commercial travel.

Surprise No 11 : Electronic Human Transports Enablers

The electronic bike, Folding bikes, Seagways and Hoverboards are all the new shift to humans using technology to move around the city. These enablers will help humans move faster than a human running but not faster than a car. IT will help people to get things done quickly by using them to work etc. This new shift will continue to expand in 2016. I see people already all over with the hoverboards. The folding electronic bike will be a game changer if ever created. Governments will have to update laws.

2015 RECAP

10 Surprises for 2015 (RECAP What I said in 2014 eoy)

Surprise No 1: Low oil is here to stay

 I think low oil is here to stay and its become the new norm for oil to trade between $30-$60 dollars a barrel for the next 2 years. Why? Too much supply and most shale producers are not planning to cut production. The only way they cut is if their companies go bankrupt which is a possibility. Most investors are expecting a quick rebound. I don't think so for some time. I think it would be difficult for oil to cross $80 a barrel for the next 5 years. Low oil is the new norm.

UPDATE: CORRECT, The Current price of oil is $36.99. I totally nailed this call. The drillers are about to go bankrupt. Oil funds having investors ask for their money back. Glencore almost bankrupt and oil Hard commodity producers getting killed.

Surprise No 2: Airlines outperform

I think if the low oil stays low for a long period of time the airline stocks will all go parabolic. This is because the industry has suffered for 30 years with high oil CAP EX. The industry has cleaned up its CAP EX with technology and with better margins on ticket sales it will help rally this sector to parabolic levels. Especially when they rip you off with the extra bag costs.
 

UPDATE: WRONG, The Current price of DJUSAR is $247.  Low oil did not translate into higher margins for airlines. The stocks may have been too richly priced in 2014 thus having little room to move in 2015. Another idea is some of the airlines rallied but you had to be selective.

Surprise No 3: Cyber wars go big

 I think there is a good chance the US and another country such as China or North Korea get entangled into a cyber war due to hacking. Either a company vs a country or a country vs a company will ensue more cyber violence. Some big network could be affected and we could loose a part of the internet or one of the major exchanges in the US go down.

UPDATE: CORRECT, PANW went from 125 to 195. This was a great year for cyber security firms. They even made a show about security called "Mr Robot. This has been a crazy year for hackers. Security is a must for many major corporations. Big firms are now moving to the cloud to increase security.

Surprise No 4: Apple hits 1 Trillion market cap

 As mobile computing continue to expand across the world and more people jump on the information super highway it has helped so many social related companies. I honestly think Apple computer is the pinnacle player in this realm. They have high margins and high volume. Apple continues to innovate and create new products for the next generation of the technology evolution. Apple will possibly the first US company to hit a 1 trillion market cap. To gain another 300 billion in market value requires another 2-3 years of great innovation and wonderfull sales tactics which Apple has always been able to deliver.

UPDATE: 50/50 Kinda Right, The Current price of AAPL is $107.  The new Iphones, Smart watch and all the other things Apple did this year did not help the bottom line for equity expansion. Sadly, AAPL did not reward investors in 2015.  The stock did peak out at $130 but ran into trouble when the I-watch did not sell as expected. Maybe next year.

Surprise No 5: Healthcare continues outperform

 Companies like Wallgreens and CVS are going to continue higher. Health related sector has gained massively from Obama care.  All sorts of health related companies now are gaining value from the regulation in healthcare. The government is splitting the costs of drugs.

UPDATE: CORRECT, The Current price of  CVS is $107.  The broad sector did go higher and many hedge funds that were health care related made allot of money. The industry did not get a big boost in 2015 because most of the low hanging fruit was found in 2014. You had to be selective with the stocks you bought.

Surprise No 6: Autos outperform

 If oil continues to stay low this may create an opportunity for car makers and dealers to do better then expected and the lack for E/V cars fall as people flock traditional gas vehicles.  Auto makers and dealers will continue higher into 2015 as the big three sell more cars ever than before in recent history. The better economy helps all auto dealers wit low interst rates on auto loans.

UPDATE: WRONG, The Current price of  F is $14 and GM is $34  Autos had a flat year which shows that the world economy may be slowing. The US Economy peaked out in first half of 2015 and allot of industries stalled such as Autos.

Surprise No 7:  Electric cars demand fall bad for TSLA

 I think TSLA will not do so well in 2015 because lack of demand for electric will be delayed until oil stabilizes. This is bearish for Tesla motors and the stock may head down to the $120 level during 2015. Tesla will rebound eventually as oil prices continue higher in the back half of 2015.

UPDATE: WRONG, The Current price of  TSLA is $243. TSLA did rally to $280 in first half of 2015 but then ran out of juice as with the rest of the Auto Industry and the broad US economy. I expected TSLA to selloff because of low oil but that did not happen. Investors seem to keep the demand for TSLA as its seen as a cult stock.





Surprise No 8: Bond Yields Rise

The long bubble in the bond market will finally come to an end as the payout of bonds to stocks has finally begin to shift the reversal. The moves by the fed will switch the trend from equities to bonds in the back half of 2015.

UPDATE: CORRECT, The Current price of  the 30Y note is $3.04. Bonds did not rise much because the FOMC delayed increasing rates up until the last month of the year. Yellen skipped multiple rate increases to focus on the strength of the recovery.

Surprise No 9: China housing crashes 

I think the long awaited crash in the housing bubble of china begins to break down asset prices. China will have to devalue its currency to deal with the major housing collapse. They have been building one stop without the need for organic growth. Sooner or later this market will collapse. This could also spill over into all markets and become a catalyst for a selloff in all asset prices in the world

UPDATE: WRONG, China stock market did crash but the Real Estate market held up. I totally missed this one. Maybe next year.

Surprise No 10: Inflation comes back

 I think the low oil prices coupled with easy money printing as well as a good economy with jobs will finally create asset inflation for the common folks of the economy. This will jack up asset prices in consumer inflation. This is the ugly form of inflation that hurts consumers. This will spur the fed to raise interest rates quicker than expected.

UPDATE: WRONG, Inflation did not go up because the Federal Reserve is keeping the reserve ratio at banks high. They are manipulating the economy to force inflation to near zero. Adding with the melt down in oil and other commodities we have deflation going on in some industries.