2014 RECAP

10 Surprises of 2014 RECAP (What I said in 2013:):

Surprise No 1: Apple’s next product

Sometime in 2014, AAPL may begin to get its act together. It is still a great company but shrinking margins and higher competition is really hurting AAPL's bottom line. The company needs to make a game changer product, possible a competitor to GOOGLE's Glass. The company lost its CEO so it needs to revamp the cult following by doing some type of spectacle. 

The company may launch the I-Watch, and I-Glasses. The company may not be able to out compete Samsung who has done an amazing job at its products.

AAPL is still in big trouble as far as I see it for now.  The prices may stay in this range all year next year.

Result:  I was 100% correct. The company has risen higher and near an all time high. Even thou this split the stock.

 



 Surprise No 2: TSLA continues higher

Tesla has done well this year but the company is trading too high and growing too fast. The stock took a beating late this year after 3 cars caught on fire. But the stock is still up allot of points. I still think the company will do well in 2014, they will sell more cars and this will continue the stock price higher. It may get a nice flush out before the next big wave up sometime in 2014. The electric car is here to stay and the industry is still very young. Upside targets 300+

This is also good for F, GM as well who are working hard to deploy electric cars to the retail public.

Result:  I was 100% correct. 

  Surprise No 3: GOOGLE Glass

The google glass should be launched this year and it will be a game changer. The tablets will be replaced by the GOOGLE Glass. It is the next evolutionary shift in mobile computing. The project will be a major success for google and I think it may push GOOGLE even higher. The company is doing well, and is in the position to do well for many years to come. The company has become a conglomerate of technologies. 

This is a very good company. The company should approach 1500 now.

The only risk I see to GOOGLE is the advertisement revenue begin to dwindle again and the earnings projections change.

Result:  I was wrong. Earnings contracted
 

 

 
Surprise No 4: 3D Printing industry grows, stocks should crash

The industry will grow in 2014. I still am not sure all these stocks will follow the industry growth. I think many of these companies are bubbles that are trading to insane P/Es. These companies have no earnings and is built on hype. This generally never ends good for stocks like these. I still think the industry will grow and a standard must be developed for retail 3-D printers. Currently no standards exist and its the wild wild west in 3D printing technologies.

Its great technology, I am a bull on the industry but a bear on the stocks

Result:  I was wrong the industry collapsed in 2014

 

Surprise No 5: Exon Mobile should continue higher

Now I said that oil may be going into a bear market last year but what I am seeing is the local US production on OIL has made us totally independent to oil already. We have so much new oil coming out the ground the story for oil will last allot longer than the alternatives.

Oil will be around for another 30 years and this is why I think XOM will be the leader. XOM is a great company originally owned by Mr. Rockefeller. I was on the last conference call and learned that XOM has over 20+ wells in development all over the world. If you add up all the revenue found in the new wells you can say the company is on a good path to grow. 

With all the local wells found in the USA in places such as the Baken and other wells, you can safely say that XOM will do well in the next 10+ years if they double there production. This will also double the company in size and is great for value investors. 

XOM has always been a leader for premium gasoline and I suspect that it will continue being a leader next 30 years. Maybe this is why buffet bought 5 Billion worth near high of year ($86.42 - $95.2) average $90.22

When oil is the core to the modern world, it will always be in demand for years to come. So picking the best horse for the next 30 years out is a safe bet that the bet is correct. Oil is used in heating, cars, plastics, toys, housing products. It is essential to life. XOM is also producing Natural gas products as well.

Result:  I was wrong the industry collapsed in 2014

Surprise No 6: Natural gas grows in demand

Recently, America has produced allot of natural gas and we have so much supply it has killed natural gas prices. Storing the natural gas was a problem for years but now we can transport the product to other countries and sell it. 

This means that if we can get cars, more homes and other uses for the energy it will also help our reliance on oil. 2014 may be the first year where the demand starts to eat into the massive supply we have in the USA that will help cause prices to rise for the commodity.

Result:  I was wrong the industry collapsed in 2014

Surprise No 7: Housing picks up

 

In 2014, the housing market will pick up and prices will begin to rise. Also production for contractors, building materials and all other related jobs may increase as well. This bodes well for unemployment because many jobs in the economy are construction related.

Soft areas may begin price appreciation, and places like New York will go on fire. The only risk to housing recovery is loan issues with banks, higher credit standards and stability of the economy.

Result:  I was right

Surprise No 8: Social Networking the Bubble

 

I continue to be a bear on social networking. I think the whole industry is a bubble that is waiting to be popped. The hype of sending messages and posting things is heavily leveraged for advertisers. I still think FB and TWTR are bubbles. I was dead wrong on GOOG for years thinking it was a bubble. It may still be, but they have moved away from just advertisements to make money. 

This social networking fad will fade as teens grow sick of these silly tools. Online advertisement may be growing but I see it as a bubble continue to expand until one day all these online ad related companies get destroyed by a massive re-evaluation. 

Online impressions has a flaw. The fundamental flaw will creep up and hurt many people one day. Mark my words!

Result:  I was wrong the stocks like Facebook and Linked-in did well.

Surprise No 9: Market Enthusiasm

 

Emotion will trump logic as investors trade momentary comfort for long-term security. I think the markets will continue to trade form a short term perspective. Things will move faster and faster due to Weekly Options. We will also have some nice moves in 2014 on both sides. 

I think eventually allot of people will get hurt on any major reversals in the economy because many of the money on the sidelines will eventually be too late buying at these current levels. The people buying on the highs will be the ones who get crushed first.
 

Result:  I was wrong the market just trended higher with few corrections
Surprise No 10: Bitcoin Grows stronger

 

I think even thou FIAT currencies are blowing up due to Fed printing all over the world the need for an alternative FOREX currency may take hold. This new currency is very similar to GOLD, or a minor pair currency. I think the need for a global currency that is not controlled by governments may be the biggest threat to all industrialized nations. The general population are tired of massive government debt, runaway spending and would support something that has better stability. 

Now bitcoin is a baby currency and must first be more popular in circulation before it actually become something that has legs.  Currently its all speculation and that is very dangerous.  If more exchanges are built and you can actually trade it on the FOREX market it may turn into something as a world alternative.   We need more products and services using the coins, allot more liquidity and less volitility for Bitcoin to grow. I think in 2014 it will continue to grow but will it survive the long hall, I have no clue!

Result:  I was wrong the industry collapsed in 2014